What You Won’t Find in Thrive Montgomery 2050

Thrive Montgomery 2050, supposedly a “general” vision and framework rather than a detailed implementation plan, will guide zoning countywide for the next 30 years. General plans are supposed to:

• Identify the general location, function, intensity, and pattern of various land uses.
• Help direct and integrate future development and redevelopment with existing development.
• Address the relationship between human activity and the built and natural environments.
• Address the varying needs and desires of a diverse and changing County population and economic community.
• Promote connections among all areas of the County and between the County and the region.
  (Montgomery County Planning: https://bit.ly/3eEk4EI)

But will Thrive meet these requirements? Probably not! While general plans should provide the flexibility to meet future needs, the absence of crucial elements from “Thrive” raises serious questions about its adequacy as a general plan.  A recent letter from the Town of Chevy Chase Mayor Barney Rush, included the following concerns about Thrive:

1. No Chapter on Economic Competitiveness: From 2007 to 2019, the County lost more than 14,000 jobs in “key industry sectors,” according to a June 2021 report for Empower Montgomery by former County Council manager Jacob Sesker. The County’s “economic underperformance, said Sesker, resulted in an average of about $250 to $270 million from 2007 to 2019. The County has fallen behind other local jurisdictions in job creation and suffered a decline in household income during the past 15 years.

Although the original draft of Thrive included a chapter on economic competitiveness (as one of three foundational goals of the document), the final draft did not. While the new draft suggests strengthening economic competitiveness by creating the “kinds of places people want to live and work,” (Thrive Montgomery 2050, p.7), Thrive includes no comprehensive strategy for addressing these crucial challenges. Even more importantly, Thrive planners circumvented the County’s executive financial management agencies, such as the Office for Management and Budget, which had no role in developing the plan but estimates that it will cost $8,16 billion and more than $333 million per year to implement. Critics ask why the Council did not prioritize economic development before authorizing a general plan dependent on increased business investment and job growth.

The Town of Chevy Chase suggests that the Council hold a hearing on integrating economic development back into Thrive, especially since builders will not build housing unless there are sufficient jobs in the area.

1. No Chapter on Environmental Resiliency: Although the original Thrive document included environmental equity as one of its three foundational goals, the latest version diffuses environmental concerns throughout the entire document. Thrive appears to rest on the assumption that promoting density and reducing “sprawl” is the only environmental priority, rather than a host of related issues such as clean air, stormwater runoff, green buildings, preventing heat islands, environmentally friendly building requirements, and water management. Because future implementation steps may not require needed infrastructure, newly densified areas could increase air pollution and similar environmental problems.
    
2. Lack of Clarity on Master Plans:  Thrive includes almost no specifics on future land use implementation, which several Councilmembers say should be left for future consideration. Since Thrive’s passage will eliminate the master planning requirements under previous general plans, this lack of specificity pinpoints a key weakness of the plan. Master and sector plans require careful analysis of housing prospects, infrastructure needs, stormwater requirements to manage increased density, targeted economic development strategies, and anticipated tax impacts for each area. Unlike such neighboring jurisdictions as DC that plan literally block by block, Thrive presents only a “one size fits all” formula for the entire County, which could lead to unworkable “solutions” in many areas of the County.
    
3. Imbalance of Suburban and Urban Priorities:  In expecting that increased density and more housing in transit-rich areas will decrease racial disparities in home ownership and increase equity and affordability, Thrive rests on unproven assumptions about the efficacy of its central vision. Failing to account for the high costs of land and construction in infill areas, Thrive provides no data on how it will promote greater ownership by a “broad swath of County residents” (p. 62).  The Planning Board’s own Silver Spring Missing Middle Marketing study shows that multi-family units are likely to cost at least $715,000, clearly unaffordable for the target beneficiaries.  So why not promote market-rate housing in a wider range of areas and explore available financing mechanisms to increase greater affordability and home ownership?
   
   Also, given the preference of many current and future residents for suburban living, Thrive’s criticism of this option is cause for concern. Thrive builds a case that the County includes too much single-family housing and too many homes with too few occupants. But since its own data (p.59) show only a 4 percent increase in people living alone during the past 30 years, the emphasis on “over housed” suburbanites seems misplaced—suggesting a need for more expansive analysis of the best solutions for cited housing problems.
   
   In addition to these concerns, Thrive provides no “reset” for post-pandemic life. Begun in 2018 before the pandemic, Thrive does not adapt for the massive changes in work patterns, transportation needs, and economic priorities the pandemic has caused. Passing this plan before reassessing and adapting for these changes would likely imperil its success. Why not take more time to ensure that this 30-year plan can meet its goals?

https://epicofmoco.salsalabs.org/isthrive2050confusingyounotmorethanthephedcommittee_copy2_copy1_copy1_copy1_copy1_copy1_copy1_copy3_copy1_copy1_copy1_copy2_copy1_copy1_copy1